Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
